How Big Will the Dems’ House Majority Be? California’s Races Could Expand Their Lead

This story was originally published by CalMatters

Democrats didn’t even need California’s congressional races to decisively reclaim control of the U.S. House Tuesday night.

They’re poised to pad their majority with at least three additional seats currently held by California Republicans after voters approved Proposition 50 last year, which redrew five of California’s districts to favor Democrats as a countermeasure to pro-Republican gerrymandering in Texas. Democrats are either leading in or have won those five Texas districts.

The remaining two redrawn districts — one in the Central Valley and the other straddling San Diego and Riverside counties — were drawn to be more competitive, although Democrats were leading by large margins in those races late Tuesday night.

A handful of races feature progressive challengers seeking to oust longtime incumbents who could push the party to the left if they are successful.

Here’s what CalMatters is watching:

California’s most hotly contested race features 12-year Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao of Hanford, a dairy farmer and perpetual target for national Democrats, and political newcomer Randy Villegas, a political science professor. 

In the 22nd District, Villegas was leading Tuesday night with nearly 65% of the vote compared to 35% for Valadao, with about 45% of the vote tallied.

Democrats hope Villegas, who is endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, can defy conventional political wisdom and win in the historically conservative, agriculture-heavy Central Valley. Villegas supports Medicare for All and universal child care, although he has also called to suspend federal taxes on gas and diesel.

Valadao, the lone remaining Republican who voted to impeach President Donald Trump after the Jan. 6, 2021 riots, is seeking his seventh term. He touts the importance of bipartisanship and independent thinking, but has faced tough questioning over his decision to support Trump’s megabill that will ultimately strip health care coverage from more than 2 million Californians in the next four years.

Further south in San Diego and Riverside counties, two local elected officials — Marni von Wilpert, a Democratic San Diego City councilmember, and Republican San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond — are competing to fill the seat of Republican Rep. Darrell Issa, who chose to retire rather than seek reelection in a redrawn 48th District. 

Von Wilpert was leading Tuesday night with nearly 60% of the vote compared to 40% for Desmond, with about 47% of the vote tallied.

Von Wilpert and Desmond are running traditionally centrist campaigns that harken to pre-Trump politics. Von Wilpert has eschewed the insurgent progressive left and instead campaigned with former Vice President Kamala Harris. Desmond has worked overtime to distance himself from Trump and the president’s MAGA rhetoric, despite receiving Trump’s endorsement. 

Public polls have consistently shown von Wilpert with a slight lead over Desmond, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report switched the race from “tossup” to “lean Democrat” back in March. Internal campaign polling suggests the race is close.

Several California races feature two Democrats because of the state’s top-two primary election system. 

Among the most watched is the race in the 11th District to succeed former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has endorsed Connie Chan, a San Francisco supervisor. Chan, a Chinese immigrant from Taiwan, is known for opposing urban development that could displace tenants or disrupt a neighborhood’s character. She faces state Sen. Scott Wiener, a prolific legislator who has authored several laws to expedite housing production and secure competitive wages on state-subsidized projects. 

Wiener was leading Tuesday with about 55% of the vote compared to Chan’s 45%, with about 51% of the vote tallied.

In the Sacramento area’s 7th District, an intergenerational “battle of the ages” is underway between Rep. Doris Matsui, 82, and Sacramento City Councilmember Mai Vang, 41. Matsui has a massive financial advantage and has loaned her campaign $4 million since the primary. Vang has political momentum as a young, insurgent progressive who is media savvy and able to directly engage with supporters via TikTok and Instagram.

Matsui was leading in early returns Tuesday night with about 58% of the vote compared to Vang’s 42% with about 38% of the vote tallied.

And in the Los Angeles-based 34th District, incumbent Rep. Jimmy Gomez faces a challenge from Democratic Socialist Angela Gonzales-Torres. The five-term congressmember won the June primary by double digits but has bled support amid a House ethics investigation into allegations of sexual assault, which he’s denied.

Gonzales-Torres was leading late Tuesday with 57% of the vote compared to Gomez’s nearly 43%, with 62% of the vote tallied so far.

Three incumbent Republican or former Republican lawmakers are expected to lose their jobs in the wake of Prop. 50.

Either Rep. Young Kim or Rep. Ken Calvert, who are both competing for California’s 40th District, will be left jobless. Gerrymandering drastically reshaped Calvert’s 41st District, but rather than retire, he chose to challenge his colleague Kim. Both scrambled to “out-Trump” the other in the primary election but Kim has since returned to a more centrist, fiscally conservative approach.

Calvert was leading with 54% Tuesday with about 35% of the vote tallied.

Rep. James Gallagher, who succeeded the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa in representing the rural north state in the 1st District, lost to former Senate President ProTem Mike McGuire, a Democrat, according to The Associated Press. The district was redrawn to remove several conservative and rural areas near the Oregon-California border. 

McGuire had about 57% compared to Gallagher’s nearly 33%, with about 47% of the vote tallied.

Rep. Kevin Kiley, who left the Republican Party earlier this year, sought reelection in the 6th District rather than his former 3rd District, which was significantly reshaped to favor Democrats. He had hoped to pull votes from Republicans, independents and moderate Democrats, but lost to Dr. Richard Pan, a physician and former state senator running as an anti-Make America Healthy Again candidate, according to The Associated Press. 

Pan led with 57.5% Tuesday compared to Kiley’s 42.5%, with about 48% of the vote tallied.