Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a statement Wednesday that the US government has formally declared that Russian armed forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine.

“Today, I can announce that, based on information currently available, the US government assesses that members of Russia’s forces have committed war crimes in Ukraine,” Blinken said. “Our assessment is based on a careful review of available information from public and intelligence sources,” he said.

Blinken also tweeted the declaration:

The official US declaration that Russia’s troops had violated the laws of conflict comes after Secretary Blinken, President Biden, and Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman all said it was their personal opinion that war crimes were taking place.

Last week, Biden accused Putin of war crimes. “I think he is a war criminal,” Biden said after remarks at the White House.

Blinken’s statement cited “credible reports” of indiscriminate attacks and attacks deliberately targeting civilians, including the destruction of apartment buildings, schools and hospitals. The State Department specifically cited attacks on a maternity hospital and a theater in Mariupol. The theater, the State Department said, was marked with the Russian word for “children” ( “дети”) in letters visible from the sky.

What ‘officially’ declaring war crimes means, is another matter.   Russia has bombed civilian targets and flattened cities in its war in Chechnya in the 1990s, it has leveled Syria with aerial strikes, and Moscow continues to order this practice in Ukraine.

The decision to issue a formal accusation of war crimes marks a significant step by the US government, but what actual difference will it make?   Legal experts have said the prosecution of Putin or other Russian leaders would face high hurdles and could take years, as outlined below:

via Rueters – The International Criminal Court in The Hague defines war crimes as “grave breaches” of the post-World War Two Geneva Conventions, agreements which layout the international humanitarian laws to be followed in wartime. Breaches include deliberately targeting civilians and attacking legitimate military targets where civilian casualties would be “excessive,” legal experts said.

The challenge in international court is in proving the ‘intent’ of committing war crimes and linking leaders directly to specific attacks is nearly impossible, it’s also very difficult to prove that targets were not hit by accident, or that enemy military personnel were not occupying them at the time of the attack.

Prosecutors can have a tough time obtaining evidence, including testimony from witnesses who might be intimidated or otherwise reluctant to speak out.  In Russia’s case, you can bet that their ex-KGB President is not letting his people testify against him in open court, Putin has famously poisoned any Russians abroad who he has labeled as ‘traders to the state’.

You do not speak out against Putin without severe consequences.

Basically, as long as Putin is in power, there will be no meaningful ‘war crimes’ prosecution.  The west will continue to wage economic and diplomatic warfare on Russia, along with arming Ukraine with advanced weapons systems.  But the prosecution of war crimes remains an incredibly difficult task while Putin is in control.

War criminals are typically caught, tried, and punished after their own countries have kicked them out of power.  Here is a list of war criminals tried over the last century. 

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