SF Office Space Value Predicted To Plummet Another 40% by 2025
This isn’t a ‘doom loop’ article. I’m not writing this because I’m concerned about the current state of commercial or corporate real estate in San Francisco. It’s actually the opposite: I’m fucking ecstatic.
According to a study released by Capital Economics, San Francisco’s commercial real estate value is predicted to decline by at least another 40% from where it currently is.
I know some of you are clutching your pearls, but this is actually great news. Everyone complained that San Francisco lost many of its creatives during the tech boom. Well, guess what? This is an opportunity for those very same people to flock to Downtown and creatively restore it.
Also we can turn a number of those vacant office buildings into affordable housing. Which would likely eliminate the homelessness crisis or at least greatly reduce it. I know what detractors are going to say, “ But AAAAAAAAAABE, it’s hard and expensive to convert office space into affordable housing!” San Francisco spends over a billion dollars a year on homelessness, we can afford it. The ‘City by the Bay’ also sits about 40 miles north of Silicon Valley which has been described as the greatest concentration of brilliance in the modern world. I’m sure some nerd down there can figure it out. If they can’t, what’s the fucking point of having all these smart people and that capital? If they can’t figure out how to put walls, a kitchen and a shitter in a highrise, they’re either stupid or corrupt. Also modern high rise condos look like soulless office buildings anyway. What’s the fucking difference?
If San Francisco wants to have a prosperous downtown, there are ways to do it. But before anything can be done, the city needs to be self reliant. They don’t need to cater to industries and beg for them to make San Francisco their headquarters. Tech is still a dominant force in the city. It’s not what it once was, but it still has a significant presence in the city. And A.I., while interesting and kind of scary, is predicted in multiple studies to eliminate jobs, not create them.
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What San Francisco needs is people. The reason why Downtown sucks isn’t because tech isn’t there anymore or that there are a lot of homeless people. It’s that, other than employment handcuffing people to a desk, there was really no reason to be Downtown. San Francisco is great. Downtown fucking sucks.
But why are other parts of San Francisco so awesome?
Because many of San Francisco’s neighborhoods aren’t only beautiful, but they are an amazing blend of residential and commercial. They’re communities. People know their neighbors, they go to coffee shops, bars, barber shops and grocery stores that cater to the specific needs of that community.
Downtown isn’t a community, it was a place where people were forced to be. Either due to addiction or employment, it wasn’t an organic gathering place and remote work is proving that.
Make Downtown a neighborhood and people will come. Forcing workers into an office at gunpoint won’t work; they’re already gone.
Look at the neighborhoods in the city that are doing well and make Downtown the high rise/ultra dense equivalency.
It’s not that hard… if you’re not corrupt.
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Howdy! My name is Katy Atchison and I'm an Associate Editor for Broke-Ass Stuart.
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