On any given day in California, you are never more than a short drive from an active fault. To put it simply, the whole damn state is seismically active. Other states rumble, too; Hawaii, Missouri, New York, South Carolina. Alaska, largest state in the Union, sees even more earthquake activity than us, yet California can’t shake its quakey reputation.
Along with this reputation come plenty of misconceptions—too many to fit in one weekly article. I chose five that, no matter how often I shoot them down, they just keep coming back.
“We can predict earthquakes, the government just won’t tell us.”
I understand this one. It’s a marriage of two conspiracies, and only one has a shred of credibility. For one, science cannot predict earthquakes, full-stop, do not pass ‘go,’ forget your $200. I don’t give a damn what Dutchsinse said. Like seismologist Dr. Lucy Jones says, “If someone tells you they know an earthquake is coming, they aren’t using science to do it.”
In an interview I can’t find, Dr. Jones joked that had she been the seismologist to crack the code, she’d be a lot richer by now.
“Small earthquakes relieve pressure on faults.”
The myth persists to this day, literally. Interviews about this morning’s earthquake swarm in San Ramon featured this question. “Unfortunately small earthquakes really don’t change the picture for larger earthquakes,” said Pacific Northwest Seismic Network Director Dr. Harold Tobin. That myth comes from the misconception that faults work like pressure cookers, and these tremors are their safety release valves. “People like to think of that as relieving a little pressure,” said Dr. Tobin, “but it doesn’t work that way.”
It comes down to an issue of scale. Solid rock has enormous capacity for stress, so intensifying an earthquake demands extreme leaps of energy. This morning’s quakes in Contra Costa County maxed out at M3.8. To recreate the 2014 West Napa quake, a M6.0, you’d need over 1,995 times more power. A M3.8 is a flash in the pan, enough for a, “What was that?” before routine reclaims us. By 2005, the M9.6 1960 Valdivia quake still accounted for around 25% of the seismic energy spent since 1960.
“California’s going to fall into the ocean.”
This myth relies entirely on the notion that the ocean is a bottomless pit into which all that falls is still falling today. It isn’t. The seafloor—it’s in the goddamn name. I’m frustrated about sharing a world with people who still think the Earth is flat. In fact, I’m still not convinced it’s not a prank à la “birds aren’t real.” But that’s beside the point. Geologically speaking, the Earth cannot shrug California into the sea. Even if the ocean could receive it, the San Andreas Fault is not a cliff in waiting. The San Andreas has more in common with the Joker’s scar, far likelier to cut a cliff’s face than be one. Whether the rest of California likes it or not, the coast isn’t going anywhere except 2–3 inches northwest per year.
“My pet can predict earthquakes.”
You may call it cheating—“didn’t you cover this right off the bat?” Technically, yes. But this is my listicle and I’ll write what I want.
It’s not fair, but your pet isn’t special. Your dog does not deserve to shit wherever it wants. When you die, your cat will eat your face, and you will deserve it. Your fish would grab your head, pull you into its tank and drown you if it could. I have no basis for anything in this paragraph so far, other than your pet is an animal you love. But no matter how impressively you train them, (and I encourage you to try), no animal can predict an earthquake.
“You should get in a doorway during an earthquake.”
This chunk of advice was grandfathered in from the era of old adobe structures. Several cities in California still have some around, and in those homes, this advice may still hold up. In traditional (i.e. unreinforced) adobe homes, the doorway is the strongest structural element and thus better shelter. In this day and age however, a well-built wood-frame house or reinforced highrise comes through an earthquake and remains habitable.
One terrible secret on its way to becoming well-known: California subscribes to a life-safety-only dogma with regards to seismic coding. It means the state allows construction to proceed when developers meet bare-minimum requirements. Billionaires erect their skyscrapers knowing they will be red-tagged and demolished as opposed to repaired and rehabilitated. Who knows why it isn’t common practice to build for rehabilitation vs. at a total loss? There’s got to be a payout at the top somewhere (just ask Larry Silverstein!).
During an earthquake, the only place you should be running to is under a sturdy desk or table. If that’s too far, drop down, cover your head, and ride it out. In bed? Stay in bed. Resist every stupid urge to run outside. You want to avoid glass in your feet, bones jutting out of your ankles, bricks unseating your brain from its cradle? Don’t run outside. What kills many people isn’t the quake or even the building they were in when it struck, but panic.
So think twice before lining shelves with your glass menagerie or hanging that mirror above your bed. A killer quake is in store. Earthquakes are annoying because you can only get through them by preparing in advance, and they kill people. Only you can prevent a fraction of an earthquake’s devastating effects; the rest, cushioned by their infrequency, is up to chance.
