SF is Averaging More COVID Cases this Summer than Last Summer

Hot town, summer in the city, we may be 77% vaccinated but our infection rates ain’t pretty.

When we compare the average new cases of COVID 19 in San Francisco this July (2021) versus July last year (2020), we see that new daily cases have increased this summer.

In the peak of last summer San Francisco was averaging 131 new cases a day, with a vaccination rate of near zero.  Last week we averaged 149 new cases per day, despite 77% of adults in San Francisco being vaccinated.

Average New COVID cases per day in San Francisco over the last year 

All data provided by: sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths

The good news is that a very important number is down year over year, and that is COVID deaths in San Francisco.  While 18 people died of COVID in July 2020, so far this month only 3 have died in SF despite more reported cases.

This decrease in death rate supports the the idea that vaccine protection remains very strong against severe disease and hospitalizations caused by any version of the coronavirus, and those most at risk are still the unvaccinated.

San Francisco COVID Deaths by Month March 2020 – July 2021

All data provided by: sf.gov/data/covid-19-cases-and-deaths

What does all this mean? It means that San Francisco may go back to a partial lockdown or likely begin another campaign around targeted use of masks, social distancing and other measures.  On July 28th California State public health officials recommended “universal masking for state residents in all public indoor settings, regardless of vaccination status.”

Our mayor has traditionally been more cautious than the rest of the state when it came to the pandemic restrictions, Mayor Breed has already demanded all public workers be vaccinated, and publicly supports the “San Francisco Bar Owner Alliance” made up of 300 bars in the city now requiring proof of vaccination before entrance.

This is a responsible decision by the SF Bar Owner Alliance that will help protect employees and customers.

We need everyone to get vaccinated, especially as the Delta variant continues to spread. It's how we can keep our city and our residents safe. https://t.co/RAENDN4SrK

— London Breed (@LondonBreed) July 26, 2021

If we look at other examples of places with very high vaccination rates like Israel, they recently reinstated mask-wearing requirements indoors and require travelers to quarantine upon arrival, and they have the highest vaccination rate of any country, at 59% vaccinated.

Israeli health officials have said 60% of current hospitalized COVID-19 cases are in vaccinated people. Most of them are age 60 or older and often have underlying health problems. (Reuters)

In the US, which has experienced more COVID cases and deaths than any other country, the Delta variant represents about 83% of new infections. So far, unvaccinated people represent nearly 97% of severe cases. (Reuters)

So what does this all mean for us in the Bay Area?  Well, if you don’t want to catch COVID wear a mask indoors.  And if you are not vaccinated yet, consider the data, and get vaccinated for free, today.

If you are going out to enjoy SF nightlife, bring proof of vaccination with you, and wear a mask when not eating or drinking.  We are not out of the woods yet friends.