Crime Is Down In The Bay Area, Why Are People Pretending It’s Not?
I remember my first day of Sociology class, Dr. Schutz, still one of the best professors I ever had, asked the class if we knew that the highest recorded homicide rate in United States history ever recorded by the FBI was just a 45 minute walk from the heart of the Stanford Campus, and he asked us why that was that was. After a long pause, he blurted out “Sociology!”
He then went on to explain that in 1992, East Palo Alto, a city of only 28,000 people had recorded 42 homicides that year – making it not only the highest homicide rate in the country for the year, but the highest rate ever recorded by the FBI.
For those who don’t know, homicide rates are measured by their per capita. Basically meaning how many people per 100,000 get murdered in any given city. So if Richmond has 50 murders with only 100,000 residents, and Oakland has 100 murders with 400,000 residents, Richmond is more dangerous in this example because they have a higher per capita number, despite having a lower raw number. Make sense?
Fast forward to today, and East Palo Alto recorded zero 0 homicides in 2023.
East Palo Alto wasn’t the only city to suffer in the early 1990s. Oakland also recorded its highest homicide rate in 1992, with 167 slayings. Last year Oakland had 120, still too high, but nowhere near its peak. Richmond, California, a city with a population hovering around 100,000 regularly had between 30 and 40 homicides a year, with a per capita rate often higher than Oakland’s. Last year, Richmond recorded 8 homicides.
Not only that, but 2024 is off to a good start, after a post-pandemic spike in previous years, crime is down from 2023 in most Bay Area cities
While one murder is too many, why doesn’t the media ever highlight the progress being made in the Bay Area’s cities and explain crime rates in historical context? The Bay Area isn’t an outlier in this trend. Violent Crime has plummeted 15% nationwide. Yet, if you watch the evening news, go on NextDoor, or ‘doom scroll’ on Twitter (X), you would think we’re living in an unending, bi-coastal Gotham City.
And that’s just not true.
That’s not to say the Bay Area’s perfect and that crime isn’t a problem here. San Francisco, Oakland and Berkeley have among the highest property crime rates in the United States. And take it from someone who has been ‘bipped’ in San Francisco, it’s not fun.
But I did get a fun picture out of it.
There are reasons for the crime hysteria being pushed on us: the first is just plain old attention. There are a ton of influencers online who aren’t really talented. These guys can’t paint, can’t write, can’t sing or dance, so instead of displaying a talent, they go to historically troubled neighborhoods and film people at their lowest.
I would name them, but if you’re in the Bay, you know who they are. And then there’s a more nefarious reason for the sensationalist content: politics.
But here’s an example:
There are extremely powerful people, not just here in the Bay Area, but in the country that want the police to act as an occupying army to crush any form of dissent. Donald Trump talks openly about this, and while Biden is a bit quieter, the reaction to the Palestine Encampments at UCLA show the intent is bipartisan.
The Bay Area likes to act so fucking smart, but we’re being misled by the same propaganda as everyone else. So next time you want to complain about crime, go do some research. Compared to the 80s, 90s or even the early 2000s, we’re in fucking paradise.
It’s time the Bay Area does what it smugly tells the rest of the country to do: read a book.
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Howdy! My name is Katy Atchison and I'm an Associate Editor for Broke-Ass Stuart.
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