This is How Important Ranked Choice Voting Will be in the SF Mayor’s Race

San Francisco City Hall from east end of Civic Center Plaza

There’s only one reason anyone runs to be the Mayor of San Francisco, as I explained to my kindergartener the other day. It’s to get on the rooftop of City Hall any time you want, obviously. 

In The City, it’s not as simple as winning a popularity contest. Because of ranked choice voting, you have to play the long con. Be somebody’s second pick. If you don’t get the girl, you might still get to dance. 

Our incumbent, Mayor London Breed, has built up a long list of accomplishments during her term. But she also faces approval pollings that have dipped up and down so many times it’s starting to resemble the 48 hills of San Francisco. How sharper than a serpent’s tooth it is to have a thankless child! Still, she stands on historically solid ground as incumbent and it would surprise some to see her unseated. So while Breed is battling fires on all sides, what would it take for the City’s arguably most progressive candidate to scoop up enough second-choice votes to take Room 200?

A refresher if you need it. We have several gentlemen running to unseat Mayor Breed: a bluejeans heir (Daniel Lurie), a Catholic schoolboy (Mark Farrell), a former labor organizer (Ahsha Safaí) , and a proud Bay swimmer (Aaron Peskin). Even if Mayor Breed got the most votes, because of ranked choice voters’ second choices, the next round might propel one of these to the spot once occupied by Geary, Van Ness, Sutro, and Moscone. 

Here’s a little video on how ranked choice voting works:

So, unless one of the candidates gets over 50% of the vote, ranked choice kicks in.

In February, The Chronicle commissioned a poll that pointed toward trouble for Mayor Breed. This was back when the race was among just four; since then, rumors of Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin running materialized into reality in April, to no surprise. The Hearst poll, at least, cut straight to the point: They asked which candidate would rank last, and about the same amount of those surveyed said they were unsure as those who said they’d choose Breed last. 

In May, GrowSF commissioned a poll that showed just what they publicly stated as their wish a few months ago – “anyone but Peskin” has a decent chance. But in their analysis, they cut Peskin out in Round 2 even though a significant percent of voters are still undecided. Remember that votes only get distributed if a candidate is eliminated due to being at the bottom in any given round. Ahsha Safaí is likely to go out in Round 1. Now the game begins. (Of note: Farrell’s campaign released a poll this week that showed Peskin just three percentage points behind Lurie. It also showed Farrell winning).

San Francisco is a funny place. Moderate and Progressive labels here can sometimes feel upside down compared to the rest of the country. Even though Safaí was characterized as a moderate in 2016, he’s stated recently that he’s been a “strong voice for progressive values.” Political opponents call him an incompetent chameleon, but his voting record without all the shit-slinging makes it seem like he’s on the left. So where do his votes go?

When it all shakes out, Safaí voters are going to walk into the polls (or file their ballot conveniently at home and drop it off) with a clear understanding that their guy isn’t going to win. They’re going through all that trouble of filling out a ballot; this writer doubts 31% of them will be exhausted or undecided at that stage. Remember, this is Round 1, and San Franciscans are a 15-round kind of crowd. 

Hardly any of Safaí voters’ votes go to Lurie according to GrowSF. But Daniel Lurie is a liberal white woman’s cream dream. His nonprofit threw a charity concert with Dave Matthews AND G-Eazy. So the questions at hand are: 

– Of the 400 people GrowSF polled, how many undecided will still be such on Election Day?

– Did GrowSF’s poll capture enough of the liberal crowd?

– Who the fuck is getting kicked off the island in Round 2?

With no other recent polls commissioned, we can’t take GrowSF’s at face value. Here’s the truth of it. San Francisco values experience. If you know somebody or have done something a while, you’re in. It’s a city with so many rules against nepotism that there’s only one explanation: we like what we know. And Lurie is the one politician who hasn’t, well, been one. Maybe that’s a good thing for his campaign. He’s fresh. Or maybe that’s doom for him. Nonprofits have gotten the dirtiest name in the past few months. It’s like working for Phillip Morris at this point, except the pay is probably worse. And that nonprofit background is what Lurie’s counting on to get the liberal vote.

It’s entirely possible that Peskin dips out in Round 2. But if Farrell and Mayor Breed are too preoccupied, the Bay swimmer might just sneak up and steal the whole show. Just like he did when he became Board President, emerging after hours of closed session as the reluctant leader of a city that’s perpetually on the cusp of doom and boom. 

Disclosure: This writer’s best friend works on Lurie’s campaign, God help her.