How Much Do Endorsements Really Matter in San Francisco Politics?

Illustration made using Midjourney since we couldn’t find any Creative Commons images that really worked for this.

Endorsements are rolling in for San Francisco’s 2024 mayoral race. Will they matter to anyone else except the chronically online? 

Research shows that endorsements can help uninformed voters make decisions, especially in close races, but this is San Francisco we’re talking about. Disengaged, disappointed, disheartened, yes, but uninformed? Hardly. Endorsements feel like a gimmick for the cynical, and they might even do more harm than good.

Much has been made about problems endemic to City Hall during this campaign season, particularly from candidate Daniel Lurie, who has framed himself as a political outsider. Endorsements are a funny game for this kind of tactic because they usually come from three places: interested affinity groups; labor unions; and major seated and former politicians who have held office, all three of whom spend a not-insignificant amount of time at the People’s Palace. These are individuals and organizations who have an interest, be it financial or otherwise, in getting their person’s foot in the door. Endorsements are, in some ways, the definition of political insiders’ wishes. That’s not to say they’re inherently bad, of course. And yet…

Last week we reported on dark money in local San Francisco elections. Much like campaign donations, endorsements are also ostensibly regulated by the FEC. And much like the way that dark money uses organizations to obfuscate the true source and motive of donors, there’s a parallel in how endorsements can make it look like a candidate has a ton of grassroots support, even if that’s not totally true. Again, it’s about perception. If a group has a great reputation, their endorsement is going to carry weight, even if there might be something shady happening behind closed doors.

(Find why BrokeAssStuart.com changed our voter guide process right here.)

Of the three types of endorsements, the ones that are making headlines are organizations like Neighbors for a Better San Francisco. Its bedfellows who sprung up around the same time, TogetherSF and GrowSF, are expected to anoint their candidate(s) later this summer. There’s been plenty of speculation about the future of the SF Democratic Party as it moves into decidedly moderate territory; that endorsement could come at a critical time if it’s bequeathed to our incumbent Mayor London Breed. Other politically invested groups like the left-of-center San Francisco Tenants Union, who endorsed Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, and the Harvey Milk Club, who also endorsed Peskin, have largely stayed out of the spotlight. 

The second type, labor endorsements, are essential in a city that runs on good union relationships like SF. But despite the name, unions are far from united on a preferred candidate – which is indicative of how tight the race feels. The real question will be whether the elected mayor can continue a healthy dialogue with labor and avoid any strikes, especially with major events like the World Cup and the Super Bowl coming up. We’re all watching what’s happening with the Paris Olympics, right? 

And then there are elected officials. Former mayor Art Agnos has made endorsements for district supervisor and state assembly races, but not officially for mayor. Former mayor Frank Jordan endorsed Daniel Lurie. And former mayor Willie Brown stopped just short of any endorsement while telling us how he really feels about the crowded race (we believe his words to the myriad candidates were to get serious or “get the fuck out” of the race). Which brings us to an important point – can an endorsement actually be a poison dart that destroys a candidate’s chances? 

It’s a risk for Lurie, who has played up the outsider bit. And for Mayor London Breed, who recently went on a podcast to talk about the complicated relationship she’s had with her former mentors and how she’s fought to make her own name for herself. For those who don’t know, the pearl-clutchers will get a kick out of how they almost tanked her career when she was overheard saying that Willie Brown didn’t wipe her ass when she was a baby (in other words, she got where she got through her own work). 

Endorsements can definitely help a candidate stand out. For lazy voters, an endorsement from an associated good name can make it easier to spot whether their principles align. But it’s a double-edged sword according to some research, because a poorly timed endorsement can “lead voters astray” or have no impact whatsoever. And if an endorsing organization ends up thrust into the limelight for all the wrong reasons due to, say, corruption, it can make a candidate stink by association. 

Ultimately, moving the mayoral election to coincide with the presidential election will bring out a larger pool of voters. Will San Franciscans use endorsements to guide their ranked choice ballots? Will the debates clear things up for anyone undecided? Or will this continue being a long, bloody footrace that won’t end until November?